Update (7.14 am AEST 16 January 2012): Phobos-Grunt has re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere. At this stage, there is no consistent confirmation of where Phobos-Grunt re-entered or if anyone was lucky enough to see the bright fireball that it would have been briefly turned into during re-entry.
Original post: At the time of preparing this post (7.15 pm AEST 15 January 2012), it is looking likely that the time that the failed Russian Mars moon return sample mission (Phobos-Grunt) may re-enter slightly later than expected. This is exciting because it means there is a slim possibility that residents of Eastern Australia may get to watch Phobos-Grunt re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere. If we do get to see it, Phobos-Grunt will be visible as a bright fireball passing across our morning sky.
The exact time that Phobos-Grunt will re-enter is uncertain. The best estimates are between 16:44 U.T.C and 22:16 U.T.C. 15 January 2012 depending on which individual or institution you refer to. That coverts to sometime between 2.44am AEST and 8.16am AEST Monday 16 January 2012 (add one hour if daylight savings is in force in your state or territory). My thanks to Ted Molczan (Yahoo seesat-l list) for providing the summary available here that I used in the production of this post.
I used the highly recommended Heavens-Above website to work out when Phobos-Grunt may be visible as it re-enters tomorrow morning (Monday 16 January 2012). Phobos-Grunt passes over much of the East facing coast of Queensland tomorrow morning assuming it hasn’t de-orbited by then. It passes directly over Cairns at 4.54 am AEST (Go here for a finder chart if you live in Cairns). For the rest of Eastern Australia, if Phobos-Grunt hasn’t re-entered, it will not be visible because of the bright morning sky UNLESS it happens to be re-entering. In this case, it will be visible as a bright fireball passing overhead.
If you live in Brisbane and are interested, I suggest you go out and look for Phobos-Grunt tomorrow morning. The ground track image produced using Heavens-Above indicates that it will pass high in the North-East sky between 4.56 and 4.58am AEST.
If you live in Canberra and are interested, I suggest you go out and look for Phobos-Grunt tomorrow morning. The ground track image produced using Heavens-Above indicates that it will pass low in the South-East sky between 7.27 and 7.29 am AEDT.
For other locations in Australia, use the Heavens-Above.com site. Information can be found here on my site.
Best of luck.
